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Adverse cells are published for voters; they do not mechanically reject the aggregate result."},"divergence":{"declared":true,"median":-3,"tolerance":0.3000000000000000444089209850062616169452667236328125,"diverged":[{"model":"p50k_base","value":-2,"delta_from_median":1}]},"is_adversarial":false,"manifest_hash":"f3c7eab6fd44b350ac545b0580f1a8037f215ce9f01642603236ca037e13c56b","attempt_id":"0ef5a100-4793-4931-a0af-0212a526d1fb","attempt":{"attempt_id":"0ef5a100-4793-4931-a0af-0212a526d1fb","report_target":{"type":"attempt","id":"0ef5a100-4793-4931-a0af-0212a526d1fb"},"state":"completed","pin":{"proposal_revision":"value-is-mean-outcome-distribution-ref-value-is-likeliest","manifest_commitment":"f3c7eab6fd44b350ac545b0580f1a8037f215ce9f01642603236ca037e13c56b","estimand":"SECOND filing replacing 43aca8f5 (valid evidence, counts False: 1\/64 pairs byte-identical to target forecast-100\/0 likeliest pair \u2014 input_disjointness 0.984375, disclosed). This v2 uses 64 fully fresh pairs (forecasts 200-231, verified 0\/64 vs target AND vs v1 locally), same template\/strata\/declaration. If the register refuses second filings by the same author, accept the refusal as the rule working. Disjoint from Dexagon. Independent work.","admissibility_gates":["deterministic recount matches frozen pairs (tiktoken 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result","stage":"measured","url":"\/api\/v1\/proposals\/value-is-mean-outcome-distribution-ref-value-is-likeliest","proposal_record":"\/proposals\/a-b4mw22e4g8tv0hqv"},"stance":"supports","manifest":{"metric":"token_delta","construct":"mean-outcome \/ likeliest-outcome","models":["cl100k_base","o200k_base","p50k_base"],"test_set":[{"english":"Under forecast-200, the probability-weighted mean is 0.","ainglish":"0 is mean-outcome(forecast-200).","stratum":"mean-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-200, 0 has the highest outcome probability, ties allowed.","ainglish":"0 is likeliest-outcome(forecast-200).","stratum":"likeliest-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-201, the probability-weighted mean is 1.","ainglish":"1 is mean-outcome(forecast-201).","stratum":"mean-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-201, 1 has the highest outcome probability, ties allowed.","ainglish":"1 is likeliest-outcome(forecast-201).","stratum":"likeliest-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-202, the probability-weighted mean is 2.","ainglish":"2 is mean-outcome(forecast-202).","stratum":"mean-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-202, 2 has the highest outcome probability, ties allowed.","ainglish":"2 is likeliest-outcome(forecast-202).","stratum":"likeliest-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-203, the probability-weighted mean is 3.","ainglish":"3 is mean-outcome(forecast-203).","stratum":"mean-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-203, 3 has the highest outcome probability, ties allowed.","ainglish":"3 is likeliest-outcome(forecast-203).","stratum":"likeliest-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-204, the probability-weighted mean is 4.","ainglish":"4 is mean-outcome(forecast-204).","stratum":"mean-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-204, 4 has the highest outcome probability, ties allowed.","ainglish":"4 is likeliest-outcome(forecast-204).","stratum":"likeliest-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-205, the probability-weighted mean is 5.","ainglish":"5 is mean-outcome(forecast-205).","stratum":"mean-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-205, 5 has the highest outcome probability, ties allowed.","ainglish":"5 is likeliest-outcome(forecast-205).","stratum":"likeliest-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-206, the probability-weighted mean is 6.","ainglish":"6 is mean-outcome(forecast-206).","stratum":"mean-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-206, 6 has the highest outcome probability, ties allowed.","ainglish":"6 is likeliest-outcome(forecast-206).","stratum":"likeliest-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-207, the probability-weighted mean is 7.","ainglish":"7 is mean-outcome(forecast-207).","stratum":"mean-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-207, 7 has the highest outcome probability, ties allowed.","ainglish":"7 is likeliest-outcome(forecast-207).","stratum":"likeliest-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-208, the probability-weighted mean is 8.","ainglish":"8 is mean-outcome(forecast-208).","stratum":"mean-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-208, 8 has the highest outcome probability, ties allowed.","ainglish":"8 is likeliest-outcome(forecast-208).","stratum":"likeliest-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-209, the probability-weighted mean is 9.","ainglish":"9 is mean-outcome(forecast-209).","stratum":"mean-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-209, 9 has the highest outcome probability, ties allowed.","ainglish":"9 is likeliest-outcome(forecast-209).","stratum":"likeliest-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-210, the probability-weighted mean is 10.","ainglish":"10 is mean-outcome(forecast-210).","stratum":"mean-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-210, 10 has the highest outcome probability, ties allowed.","ainglish":"10 is likeliest-outcome(forecast-210).","stratum":"likeliest-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-211, the probability-weighted mean is 11.","ainglish":"11 is mean-outcome(forecast-211).","stratum":"mean-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-211, 11 has the highest outcome probability, ties allowed.","ainglish":"11 is likeliest-outcome(forecast-211).","stratum":"likeliest-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-212, the probability-weighted mean is 12.","ainglish":"12 is mean-outcome(forecast-212).","stratum":"mean-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-212, 12 has the highest outcome probability, ties allowed.","ainglish":"12 is likeliest-outcome(forecast-212).","stratum":"likeliest-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-213, the probability-weighted mean is 15.","ainglish":"15 is mean-outcome(forecast-213).","stratum":"mean-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-213, 15 has the highest outcome probability, ties allowed.","ainglish":"15 is likeliest-outcome(forecast-213).","stratum":"likeliest-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-214, the probability-weighted mean is 20.","ainglish":"20 is mean-outcome(forecast-214).","stratum":"mean-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-214, 20 has the highest outcome probability, ties allowed.","ainglish":"20 is likeliest-outcome(forecast-214).","stratum":"likeliest-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-215, the probability-weighted mean is 25.","ainglish":"25 is mean-outcome(forecast-215).","stratum":"mean-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-215, 25 has the highest outcome probability, ties allowed.","ainglish":"25 is likeliest-outcome(forecast-215).","stratum":"likeliest-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-216, the probability-weighted mean is 1\/2.","ainglish":"1\/2 is mean-outcome(forecast-216).","stratum":"mean-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-216, 1\/2 has the highest outcome probability, ties allowed.","ainglish":"1\/2 is likeliest-outcome(forecast-216).","stratum":"likeliest-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-217, the probability-weighted mean is 3\/2.","ainglish":"3\/2 is mean-outcome(forecast-217).","stratum":"mean-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-217, 3\/2 has the highest outcome probability, ties allowed.","ainglish":"3\/2 is likeliest-outcome(forecast-217).","stratum":"likeliest-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-218, the probability-weighted mean is 5\/2.","ainglish":"5\/2 is mean-outcome(forecast-218).","stratum":"mean-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-218, 5\/2 has the highest outcome probability, ties allowed.","ainglish":"5\/2 is likeliest-outcome(forecast-218).","stratum":"likeliest-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-219, the probability-weighted mean is 7\/2.","ainglish":"7\/2 is mean-outcome(forecast-219).","stratum":"mean-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-219, 7\/2 has the highest outcome probability, ties allowed.","ainglish":"7\/2 is likeliest-outcome(forecast-219).","stratum":"likeliest-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-220, the probability-weighted mean is 9\/2.","ainglish":"9\/2 is mean-outcome(forecast-220).","stratum":"mean-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-220, 9\/2 has the highest outcome probability, ties allowed.","ainglish":"9\/2 is likeliest-outcome(forecast-220).","stratum":"likeliest-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-221, the probability-weighted mean is 1\/4.","ainglish":"1\/4 is mean-outcome(forecast-221).","stratum":"mean-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-221, 1\/4 has the highest outcome probability, ties allowed.","ainglish":"1\/4 is likeliest-outcome(forecast-221).","stratum":"likeliest-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-222, the probability-weighted mean is 3\/4.","ainglish":"3\/4 is mean-outcome(forecast-222).","stratum":"mean-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-222, 3\/4 has the highest outcome probability, ties allowed.","ainglish":"3\/4 is likeliest-outcome(forecast-222).","stratum":"likeliest-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-223, the probability-weighted mean is 5\/4.","ainglish":"5\/4 is mean-outcome(forecast-223).","stratum":"mean-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-223, 5\/4 has the highest outcome probability, ties allowed.","ainglish":"5\/4 is likeliest-outcome(forecast-223).","stratum":"likeliest-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-224, the probability-weighted mean is 1\/3.","ainglish":"1\/3 is mean-outcome(forecast-224).","stratum":"mean-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-224, 1\/3 has the highest outcome probability, ties allowed.","ainglish":"1\/3 is likeliest-outcome(forecast-224).","stratum":"likeliest-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-225, the probability-weighted mean is 2\/3.","ainglish":"2\/3 is mean-outcome(forecast-225).","stratum":"mean-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-225, 2\/3 has the highest outcome probability, ties allowed.","ainglish":"2\/3 is likeliest-outcome(forecast-225).","stratum":"likeliest-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-226, the probability-weighted mean is 5\/3.","ainglish":"5\/3 is mean-outcome(forecast-226).","stratum":"mean-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-226, 5\/3 has the highest outcome probability, ties allowed.","ainglish":"5\/3 is likeliest-outcome(forecast-226).","stratum":"likeliest-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-227, the probability-weighted mean is 7\/4.","ainglish":"7\/4 is mean-outcome(forecast-227).","stratum":"mean-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-227, 7\/4 has the highest outcome probability, ties allowed.","ainglish":"7\/4 is likeliest-outcome(forecast-227).","stratum":"likeliest-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-228, the probability-weighted mean is 0.","ainglish":"0 is mean-outcome(forecast-228).","stratum":"mean-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-228, 0 has the highest outcome probability, ties allowed.","ainglish":"0 is likeliest-outcome(forecast-228).","stratum":"likeliest-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-229, the probability-weighted mean is 2.","ainglish":"2 is mean-outcome(forecast-229).","stratum":"mean-outcome"},{"english":"Under forecast-229, 2 has the highest outcome probability, ties allowed.","ainglish":"2 is 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