Evidence

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Choose two experiments by title, measurement and date. The choices include up to 50 newest public completed results, plus your current selections. Historical results stay labelled. For older records, use the evidence explorer or exact entry below.

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Clear comparison

Compare the essentials

Read each question across both results. A matching description is not proof that the studies are scientifically comparable.

Question	First result	Second result
Which proposal?	prob / odds-for / odds-against — is a risk a share or a ratio, and which side comes first?2026-09-06 11:31 UTC	prob / odds-for / odds-against — is a risk a share or a ratio, and which side comes first?2026-09-25 09:47 UTC
What was measured?	comprehension accuracyHow does the wording change correct answers from the declared reader panel?	comprehension accuracyHow does the wording change correct answers from the declared reader panel?
What was the result?	-6.5887 percentage pointsReported interval: -13.5074 to 1.0726Not yet counting in evidence decisions	0.8887 percentage pointsReported interval: -3.3333 to 6.6667Counts in current evidence decisions
Compared with what?	Complete, careful EnglishReader exposure not recorded as a structured label	Complete, careful EnglishReader exposure not recorded as a structured label
Independently settled?	DisputedEligible replications disagree and this original does not hold a settlement majority.	Disagrees with the named originalThis eligible row adds one disagreement. An adverse or null direction is a valid result and remains visible.

Inspect first result Inspect second result

What differs in the declared methods?

These are literal recorded values, not a compatibility test. Matching declarations do not prove equivalent inputs or fair scoring. A missing structured field may be described elsewhere in the immutable specification.

What was measured · Same recorded value

First result

comprehension_accuracy_delta

Second result

comprehension_accuracy_delta

English comparison declarations · Same recorded value

First result

[
    "complete-careful-english-v1"
]

Second result

[
    "complete-careful-english-v1"
]

Tested population · Not recorded on either side

First result

Not recorded in this structured field

Second result

Not recorded in this structured field

Unit tested · Not recorded on either side

First result

Not recorded in this structured field

Second result

Not recorded in this structured field

Named instruments (including order) · Recorded values differ

First result

[
    "mistral-small3.2-24b-opaque-choice-q4_k_m@q4_k_m",
    "gemma3-12b-opaque-choice-q4_k_m@q4_k_m"
]

Second result

[
    "deepseek-flash"
]

Reader exposure · Not recorded on either side

First result

Not recorded in this structured field

Second result

Not recorded in this structured field

Exposure window · Not recorded on either side

First result

Not recorded in this structured field

Second result

Not recorded in this structured field

How results combine · Not recorded on either side

First result

Not recorded in this structured field

Second result

Not recorded in this structured field

Scoring declaration · Not recorded on either side

First result

Not recorded in this structured field

Second result

Not recorded in this structured field

Conditions (including order) · Same recorded value

First result

[
    {
        "id": "prob:payout",
        "weight": 1
    },
    {
        "id": "prob:calibration",
        "weight": 1
    },
    {
        "id": "prob:frequency",
        "weight": 1
    },
    {
        "id": "prob:causation",
        "weight": 1
    },
    {
        "id": "prob:rounding",
        "weight": 1
    },
    {
        "id": "odds-for:payout",
        "weight": 1
    },
    {
        "id": "odds-for:calibration",
        "weight": 1
    },
    {
        "id": "odds-for:frequency",
        "weight": 1
    },
    {
        "id": "odds-for:causation",
        "weight": 1
    },
    {
        "id": "odds-for:rounding",
        "weight": 1
    },
    {
        "id": "odds-against:payout",
        "weight": 1
    },
    {
        "id": "odds-against:calibration",
        "weight": 1
    },
    {
        "id": "odds-against:frequency",
        "weight": 1
    },
    {
        "id": "odds-against:causation",
        "weight": 1
    },
    {
        "id": "odds-against:rounding",
        "weight": 1
    }
]

Second result

[
    {
        "id": "prob:payout",
        "weight": 1
    },
    {
        "id": "prob:calibration",
        "weight": 1
    },
    {
        "id": "prob:frequency",
        "weight": 1
    },
    {
        "id": "prob:causation",
        "weight": 1
    },
    {
        "id": "prob:rounding",
        "weight": 1
    },
    {
        "id": "odds-for:payout",
        "weight": 1
    },
    {
        "id": "odds-for:calibration",
        "weight": 1
    },
    {
        "id": "odds-for:frequency",
        "weight": 1
    },
    {
        "id": "odds-for:causation",
        "weight": 1
    },
    {
        "id": "odds-for:rounding",
        "weight": 1
    },
    {
        "id": "odds-against:payout",
        "weight": 1
    },
    {
        "id": "odds-against:calibration",
        "weight": 1
    },
    {
        "id": "odds-against:frequency",
        "weight": 1
    },
    {
        "id": "odds-against:causation",
        "weight": 1
    },
    {
        "id": "odds-against:rounding",
        "weight": 1
    }
]

First result: full recordcomprehension accuracy · -6.5887 percentage points

First result · 2026-09-06 11:31 UTC

prob / odds-for / odds-against — is a risk a share or a ratio, and which side comes first?

Not yet counting in evidence decisions. This row remains available for assessment, but does not currently carry a counting evidence result.

What was measured

comprehension accuracy · comprehension_accuracy_delta
How does the wording change correct answers from the declared reader panel?

Reported result

-6.5887 percentage points
Reported interval: -13.5074 to 1.0726.

The value is neutral or does not resolve the registered direction.

English comparison

Complete, careful English

Declared by the submitter; not a certification of equivalent information.

Identical contextual facts in both arms; direct complete English for the question asked. Scope and omitted dimensions are explicit in DESIGN.md.

Reader exposure

Reader exposure not recorded as a structured label

Named instruments

mistral-small3.2-24b-opaque-choice-q4_k_m@q4_k_m, gemma3-12b-opaque-choice-q4_k_m@q4_k_m

Reader population not separately declared.

Conditions covered

Separate outcomes retained for all 15 declared conditions

prob:payout, prob:calibration, prob:frequency, prob:causation, prob:rounding, odds-for:payout, odds-for:calibration, odds-for:frequency, odds-for:causation, odds-for:rounding, odds-against:payout, odds-against:calibration, odds-against:frequency, odds-against:causation, odds-against:rounding

An overall average can hide a weak condition. A condition list is not proof that every form or claim in the proposal was tested.

Settlement role

Disputed

Eligible replications disagree and this original does not hold a settlement majority.

How often did each version lead to the right answer?

English comparison: 90.33%; 90.33%
Ainglish version: 83.75%; 83.75%

Reported real-item accuracy, not the separate calibration score. Both bars use the same 0–100% scale. The difference is measured in percentage points, not percent improvement. Any declared stratum weights are already applied.

Reported item-bootstrap interval: -13.5074 to 1.0726 percentage points.

This interval concerns the difference, not separate uncertainty bounds for either accuracy. It does not measure uncertainty across humans or future models.

At least one declared condition is resolution-limited. The overall interval does not settle every condition.

Item-selection sensitivity warning. At least one reported reduced-item check changed direction or fell outside the full-item interval. Keep this warning with the score: the headline interval alone does not resolve sensitivity to which cases were included.

Real cases: 120 · Named readers: 2. These are different units; multiple answers to one case are not new cases.

Does the overall result hide differences between conditions?

Every stored condition, without new pooling. Differences and intervals use percentage points. Condition names come from the frozen experiment.
Condition	Reported difference	Reported interval	English accuracy	Ainglish accuracy
`prob:payout`	34.55	Not recorded	45.45%	80.00%
`prob:calibration`	0	Not recorded	100.00%	100.00%
`prob:frequency`	0	Not recorded	100.00%	100.00%
`prob:causation`	-25	Not recorded	87.50%	62.50%
`prob:rounding`	0	Not recorded	100.00%	100.00%
`odds-for:payout`	-50	Not recorded	100.00%	50.00%
`odds-for:calibration`	-11.11	Not recorded	100.00%	88.89%
`odds-for:frequency`	11.11	Not recorded	88.89%	100.00%
`odds-for:causation`	-30.77	Not recorded	100.00%	69.23%
`odds-for:rounding`	0	Not recorded	100.00%	100.00%
`odds-against:payout`	-15.87	Not recorded	71.43%	55.56%
`odds-against:calibration`	0	Not recorded	87.50%	87.50%
`odds-against:frequency`	16.67	Not recorded	83.33%	100.00%
`odds-against:causation`	-37.5	Not recorded	100.00%	62.50%
`odds-against:rounding`	9.09	Not recorded	90.91%	100.00%

A missing condition interval is not zero uncertainty. An overall interval cannot substitute for agreement in every load-bearing condition.

Inspect externally stored inputs and recorded answers

The comparison label is the submitter’s declaration, not a semantic certification. Check that both versions preserve the information needed to answer the same question.

Numbers count only readable inputs attached to this receipt. They are not the experiment’s declared sample size or the number of reader calls.

The input material is linked externally. The number of study items and controls in that file has not been checked by this website. “External file” does not mean zero inputs.

Open the declared external input artifact. This is an unverified external link, not a hosted or inspected copy.

Declared input digest: 14046a8994a73e8120eaec31f4d24244c6c7b206de0fa51d96162d55312f5333. A recorded digest alone does not establish that the linked file matches it.

The website does not fetch the file. Verify the declared digest recipe before relying on it: SDK item digests use canonical JSON of the item array, not the raw pretty-printed file bytes.

No readable study input pairs are stored inline in this receipt. This does not mean the experiment used none.

Prompts, reference material and other context can live elsewhere in the specification. Inputs and keys alone do not reconstruct every reader call or establish a fair comparison.

Declared population, method and retained outcomes

No structured study scope is declared here. Inspect the immutable manifest; do not infer a comparator or population from the headline.

Absolute arm results, reader-specific results and condition results below are retained values, not a newly pooled analysis. Accuracy arms use fractions from 0 to 1; their difference uses percentage points.

Absolute arm results

{
    "english": 0.9032999999999999918287585387588478624820709228515625,
    "ainglish": 0.83750000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,
    "chance": 0.5
}

Reader or tokenizer results

[
    {
        "model": "mistral-small3.2-24b-opaque-choice-q4_k_m",
        "value": -5.9047000000000000596855898038484156131744384765625,
        "precision": "q4_k_m"
    },
    {
        "model": "gemma3-12b-opaque-choice-q4_k_m",
        "value": -6.06400000000000005684341886080801486968994140625,
        "precision": "q4_k_m"
    }
]

Condition results

[
    {
        "id": "prob:payout",
        "weight": 1,
        "share": 0.06666666666666666574148081281236954964697360992431640625,
        "value": 34.5499999999999971578290569595992565155029296875,
        "value_lo": null,
        "value_hi": null,
        "arms": {
            "english": 0.45450000000000001509903313490212894976139068603515625,
            "ainglish": 0.8000000000000000444089209850062616169452667236328125,
            "chance": 0.5
        },
        "resolution_bound": "resolvable"
    },
    {
        "id": "prob:calibration",
        "weight": 1,
        "share": 0.06666666666666666574148081281236954964697360992431640625,
        "value": 0,
        "value_lo": null,
        "value_hi": null,
        "arms": {
            "english": 1,
            "ainglish": 1,
            "chance": 0.5
        },
        "resolution_bound": "ceiling"
    },
    {
        "id": "prob:frequency",
        "weight": 1,
        "share": 0.06666666666666666574148081281236954964697360992431640625,
        "value": 0,
        "value_lo": null,
        "value_hi": null,
        "arms": {
            "english": 1,
            "ainglish": 1,
            "chance": 0.5
        },
        "resolution_bound": "ceiling"
    },
    {
        "id": "prob:causation",
        "weight": 1,
        "share": 0.06666666666666666574148081281236954964697360992431640625,
        "value": -25,
        "value_lo": null,
        "value_hi": null,
        "arms": {
            "english": 0.875,
            "ainglish": 0.625,
            "chance": 0.5
        },
        "resolution_bound": "resolvable"
    },
    {
        "id": "prob:rounding",
        "weight": 1,
        "share": 0.06666666666666666574148081281236954964697360992431640625,
        "value": 0,
        "value_lo": null,
        "value_hi": null,
        "arms": {
            "english": 1,
            "ainglish": 1,
            "chance": 0.5
        },
        "resolution_bound": "ceiling"
    },
    {
        "id": "odds-for:payout",
        "weight": 1,
        "share": 0.06666666666666666574148081281236954964697360992431640625,
        "value": -50,
        "value_lo": null,
        "value_hi": null,
        "arms": {
            "english": 1,
            "ainglish": 0.5,
            "chance": 0.5
        },
        "resolution_bound": "resolvable"
    },
    {
        "id": "odds-for:calibration",
        "weight": 1,
        "share": 0.06666666666666666574148081281236954964697360992431640625,
        "value": -11.1099999999999994315658113919198513031005859375,
        "value_lo": null,
        "value_hi": null,
        "arms": {
            "english": 1,
            "ainglish": 0.888900000000000023447910280083306133747100830078125,
            "chance": 0.5
        },
        "resolution_bound": "resolvable"
    },
    {
        "id": "odds-for:frequency",
        "weight": 1,
        "share": 0.06666666666666666574148081281236954964697360992431640625,
        "value": 11.1099999999999994315658113919198513031005859375,
        "value_lo": null,
        "value_hi": null,
        "arms": {
            "english": 0.888900000000000023447910280083306133747100830078125,
            "ainglish": 1,
            "chance": 0.5
        },
        "resolution_bound": "resolvable"
    },
    {
        "id": "odds-for:causation",
        "weight": 1,
        "share": 0.06666666666666666574148081281236954964697360992431640625,
        "value": -30.769999999999999573674358543939888477325439453125,
        "value_lo": null,
        "value_hi": null,
        "arms": {
            "english": 1,
            "ainglish": 0.69230000000000002646771690706373192369937896728515625,
            "chance": 0.5
        },
        "resolution_bound": "resolvable"
    },
    {
        "id": "odds-for:rounding",
        "weight": 1,
        "share": 0.06666666666666666574148081281236954964697360992431640625,
        "value": 0,
        "value_lo": null,
        "value_hi": null,
        "arms": {
            "english": 1,
            "ainglish": 1,
            "chance": 0.5
        },
        "resolution_bound": "ceiling"
    },
    {
        "id": "odds-against:payout",
        "weight": 1,
        "share": 0.06666666666666666574148081281236954964697360992431640625,
        "value": -15.8699999999999992184029906638897955417633056640625,
        "value_lo": null,
        "value_hi": null,
        "arms": {
            "english": 0.71430000000000004600764214046648703515529632568359375,
            "ainglish": 0.55559999999999998276933865781757049262523651123046875,
            "chance": 0.5
        },
        "resolution_bound": "resolvable"
    },
    {
        "id": "odds-against:calibration",
        "weight": 1,
        "share": 0.06666666666666666574148081281236954964697360992431640625,
        "value": 0,
        "value_lo": null,
        "value_hi": null,
        "arms": {
            "english": 0.875,
            "ainglish": 0.875,
            "chance": 0.5
        },
        "resolution_bound": "resolvable"
    },
    {
        "id": "odds-against:frequency",
        "weight": 1,
        "share": 0.06666666666666666574148081281236954964697360992431640625,
        "value": 16.6700000000000017053025658242404460906982421875,
        "value_lo": null,
        "value_hi": null,
        "arms": {
            "english": 0.83330000000000004067857162226573564112186431884765625,
            "ainglish": 1,
            "chance": 0.5
        },
        "resolution_bound": "resolvable"
    },
    {
        "id": "odds-against:causation",
        "weight": 1,
        "share": 0.06666666666666666574148081281236954964697360992431640625,
        "value": -37.5,
        "value_lo": null,
        "value_hi": null,
        "arms": {
            "english": 1,
            "ainglish": 0.625,
            "chance": 0.5
        },
        "resolution_bound": "resolvable"
    },
    {
        "id": "odds-against:rounding",
        "weight": 1,
        "share": 0.06666666666666666574148081281236954964697360992431640625,
        "value": 9.089999999999999857891452847979962825775146484375,
        "value_lo": null,
        "value_hi": null,
        "arms": {
            "english": 0.909100000000000019184653865522705018520355224609375,
            "ainglish": 1,
            "chance": 0.5
        },
        "resolution_bound": "ceiling"
    }
]

Exact result and immutable specification Experiment history

Attempt 638d2aab-f063-48c2-bb8f-7d27ab7af3b4
Content f270857d598a65b32d12b172773219e48e5c71950dc0dd4940f8bfddd081b4ee

Second result: full recordcomprehension accuracy · 0.8887 percentage points

Second result · 2026-09-25 09:47 UTC

prob / odds-for / odds-against — is a risk a share or a ratio, and which side comes first?

Counts in current evidence decisions. This row currently contributes to evidence decisions. Its direction is separate from whether the proposal is ready for adoption.

What was measured

comprehension accuracy · comprehension_accuracy_delta
How does the wording change correct answers from the declared reader panel?

Reported result

0.8887 percentage points
Reported interval: -3.3333 to 6.6667.

The value is neutral or does not resolve the registered direction.

English comparison

Complete, careful English

Declared by the submitter; not a certification of equivalent information.

Same scenario, same supplied figures and the same separate fact in both arms; the careful-English arm states the probability or the oriented odds in complete English ('The probability of X is 80%.', 'The stated odds in favour of X are 4:1.') while the marked arm uses prob(X)= / odds-for(X)= / odds-against(X)=. The source's own comparator kind and semantics, preserved; no bare-ambiguity arm.

Reader exposure

Reader exposure not recorded as a structured label

Named instruments

deepseek-flash

Reader population not separately declared.

Conditions covered

Separate outcomes retained for all 15 declared conditions

An overall average can hide a weak condition. A condition list is not proof that every form or claim in the proposal was tested.

Settlement role

Disagrees with the named original

This eligible row adds one disagreement. An adverse or null direction is a valid result and remains visible.

This result checks a named original, not every experiment on the proposal. Read its target original

Compare with the exact target attempt

Every declared condition must agree. Overlapping overall intervals alone do not confirm this original.

How much input text was reused?

Complete-pair freshness is not available for this receipt.

Separate-arm overlap is unavailable or has not been computed. This does not mean zero reuse.

The item banks are referenced by digest rather than inspectable here. Compare the explicitly retrieved, digest-verified files before making a freshness claim.

Declared item-bank digests: different. This compares bank identity, not shared sentences; different bank digests can still contain identical pairs.

Exact text comparisons only; repeated occurrences count separately. Shared text can deserve scrutiny even when each complete pair is new. These arm counts are descriptive and do not change settlement eligibility.

Declared target content identity

f270857d598a65b32d12b172773219e48e5c71950dc0dd4940f8bfddd081b4ee

How often did each version lead to the right answer?

English comparison: 97.78%; 97.78%
Ainglish version: 98.67%; 98.67%

Reported item-bootstrap interval: -3.3333 to 6.6667 percentage points.

This interval concerns the difference, not separate uncertainty bounds for either accuracy. It does not measure uncertainty across humans or future models.

At least one declared condition is resolution-limited. The overall interval does not settle every condition.

Real cases: 120 · Named readers: 1. These are different units; multiple answers to one case are not new cases.

Does the overall result hide differences between conditions?

Every stored condition, without new pooling. Differences and intervals use percentage points. Condition names come from the frozen experiment.
Condition	Reported difference	Reported interval	English accuracy	Ainglish accuracy
`prob:payout`	0	Not recorded	100.00%	100.00%
`prob:calibration`	-20	Not recorded	100.00%	80.00%
`prob:frequency`	0	Not recorded	100.00%	100.00%
`prob:causation`	0	Not recorded	100.00%	100.00%
`prob:rounding`	0	Not recorded	100.00%	100.00%
`odds-for:payout`	0	Not recorded	100.00%	100.00%
`odds-for:calibration`	0	Not recorded	100.00%	100.00%
`odds-for:frequency`	0	Not recorded	100.00%	100.00%
`odds-for:causation`	0	Not recorded	100.00%	100.00%
`odds-for:rounding`	0	Not recorded	100.00%	100.00%
`odds-against:payout`	0	Not recorded	100.00%	100.00%
`odds-against:calibration`	33.33	Not recorded	66.67%	100.00%
`odds-against:frequency`	0	Not recorded	100.00%	100.00%
`odds-against:causation`	0	Not recorded	100.00%	100.00%
`odds-against:rounding`	0	Not recorded	100.00%	100.00%

A missing condition interval is not zero uncertainty. An overall interval cannot substitute for agreement in every load-bearing condition.

Inspect externally stored inputs and recorded answers

The comparison label is the submitter’s declaration, not a semantic certification. Check that both versions preserve the information needed to answer the same question.

Numbers count only readable inputs attached to this receipt. They are not the experiment’s declared sample size or the number of reader calls.

The input material is linked externally. The number of study items and controls in that file has not been checked by this website. “External file” does not mean zero inputs.

Open the declared external input artifact. This is an unverified external link, not a hosted or inspected copy.

Declared input digest: b2ba9648aa35c8c1b57273cd34dc11b2470ccb3fc313f3c1e7a4d2155e772f13. A recorded digest alone does not establish that the linked file matches it.

The website does not fetch the file. Verify the declared digest recipe before relying on it: SDK item digests use canonical JSON of the item array, not the raw pretty-printed file bytes.

No readable study input pairs are stored inline in this receipt. This does not mean the experiment used none.

Prompts, reference material and other context can live elsewhere in the specification. Inputs and keys alone do not reconstruct every reader call or establish a fair comparison.

Declared population, method and retained outcomes

No structured study scope is declared here. Inspect the immutable manifest; do not infer a comparator or population from the headline.

Absolute arm results

{
    "english": 0.9778000000000000024868995751603506505489349365234375,
    "ainglish": 0.98670000000000002149391775674303062260150909423828125,
    "chance": 0.5
}

Reader or tokenizer results

[
    {
        "model": "deepseek-flash",
        "value": 0.888700000000000045474735088646411895751953125
    }
]

Condition results

[
    {
        "id": "prob:payout",
        "weight": 1,
        "share": 0.06666666666666666574148081281236954964697360992431640625,
        "value": 0,
        "value_lo": null,
        "value_hi": null,
        "arms": {
            "english": 1,
            "ainglish": 1,
            "chance": 0.5
        },
        "resolution_bound": "ceiling"
    },
    {
        "id": "prob:calibration",
        "weight": 1,
        "share": 0.06666666666666666574148081281236954964697360992431640625,
        "value": -20,
        "value_lo": null,
        "value_hi": null,
        "arms": {
            "english": 1,
            "ainglish": 0.8000000000000000444089209850062616169452667236328125,
            "chance": 0.5
        },
        "resolution_bound": "resolvable"
    },
    {
        "id": "prob:frequency",
        "weight": 1,
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    }
]

Exact result and immutable specification Experiment history

Attempt 34897fda-6798-4530-8889-4dc7c6c5cb72
Content 0ff33a66aac28d41560ebca8bd01e5a226e99feb7645bd21647cd17ac07c6531

Different wording, readers, exposure or populations can legitimately produce different results. A visible reference is not training the model’s weights. Current models and tokenizers have learned English; future Ainglish-trained performance remains a research question.