First result · 2026-09-07 20:44 UTC
mean-outcome / likeliest-outcome — an expected result need not be a possible result
Counts in current evidence decisions. This row currently contributes to evidence decisions. Its direction is separate from whether the proposal is ready for adoption.
- What was measured
- token cost ·
token_delta
How does the wording change tokenizer units for the declared tokenizer population? - Reported result
- 2.5 tokens per declared item
Reported interval: 1.5 to 2.5.More tokens on the named current tokenizers; this is the encoded-length difference, not the proposal decision.
- English comparison
- English comparison not recorded as a structured label
Declared by the submitter; not a certification of equivalent information.
- Tokenizer conditions
- Literal encoding cost on the named current tokenizers; not comprehension.
- Named instruments
cl100k_base,o200k_base,p50k_baseReader population not separately declared.
- Conditions covered
- Separate outcomes retained for all 2 declared conditions
mean-outcome,likeliest-outcomeAn overall average can hide a weak condition. A condition list is not proof that every form or claim in the proposal was tested.
- Settlement role
- Confirmed, with disagreement visible
A settlement majority confirms this original, while eligible disagreement remains part of the record.
- Is this result within the cost allowance?
- This headline is within the allowance.
The reported difference is 2.5 tokens; the current declaration allows at most 6 tokens.
This compares Ainglish minus English with the current declaration, which may differ from the declaration when the result was filed. It checks the headline only: inspect any required per-form and per-tokenizer results too.
- Has the original estimate been independently reproduced?
- Confirmed, with disagreement visible.
A settlement majority confirms this original, while eligible disagreement remains part of the record.
Reproduction asks whether fresh-input findings agree under the settlement rule. It does not ask whether either value satisfies the cost allowance.
Being within the cost allowance is not a completed prerequisite. Reproducing an original estimate is a separate check, not proof that the allowance is met. Current evidence status, settlement and every declared result still determine readiness.
How can one check pass while the other does not?
For example, an allowance of at most +3 tokens and an original estimate of +3 ask different questions. A replication of −0.5 is within that allowance but may disagree with the original. A replication of +3.25 may reproduce +3 within the settlement tolerance while exceeding the allowance.
These are illustrative numbers, not a new settlement rule. A cost saving is not a comprehension result, and a reproduced premium does not by itself mean a proposal should be adopted or rejected.
Does the overall result hide differences between conditions?
| Condition | Reported difference | Reported interval |
|---|---|---|
mean-outcome | 3 | Not recorded |
likeliest-outcome | 2 | Not recorded |
A missing condition interval is not zero uncertainty. An overall interval cannot substitute for agreement in every load-bearing condition.
Inspect actual inputs and recorded answers
The comparison label is the submitter’s declaration, not a semantic certification. Check that both versions preserve the information needed to answer the same question.
Numbers count only readable inputs attached to this receipt. They are not the experiment’s declared sample size or the number of reader calls.
Showing 1–6 of 64 readable, inline study items, in stored order—not a selection of successes. 0 control items are kept separate.
Each result has its own input pages. Positions across the two studies do not imply matched cases.
Input 1 · outcome-0-mean-outcome
- English input
- Mean under forecast-70: 3/2.
- Ainglish input
- 3/2 is mean-outcome(forecast-70).
- Condition
- mean-outcome
Input 2 · outcome-0-likeliest-outcome
- English input
- A most probable outcome under forecast-70: 0.
- Ainglish input
- 0 is likeliest-outcome(forecast-70).
- Condition
- likeliest-outcome
Input 3 · outcome-1-mean-outcome
- English input
- Mean under forecast-71: 3.
- Ainglish input
- 3 is mean-outcome(forecast-71).
- Condition
- mean-outcome
Input 4 · outcome-1-likeliest-outcome
- English input
- A most probable outcome under forecast-71: 0.
- Ainglish input
- 0 is likeliest-outcome(forecast-71).
- Condition
- likeliest-outcome
Input 5 · outcome-2-mean-outcome
- English input
- Mean under forecast-72: 9/2.
- Ainglish input
- 9/2 is mean-outcome(forecast-72).
- Condition
- mean-outcome
Input 6 · outcome-2-likeliest-outcome
- English input
- A most probable outcome under forecast-72: 0.
- Ainglish input
- 0 is likeliest-outcome(forecast-72).
- Condition
- likeliest-outcome
Recorded input digest: cae190954c0f0e102697732f35fd7526fcb976b25fcaf5f2506c43c3c61e014e
Prompts, reference material and other context can live elsewhere in the specification. Inputs and keys alone do not reconstruct every reader call or establish a fair comparison.
Declared population, method and retained outcomes
- Compared with
- registered surface versus frozen compact technical English
- Tested population
- 64 prospective authored outcome-compact pairs, equal marker weights; fixed reference variants are not independent semantic frames
- Unit tested
- one complete claim sentence with exactly shared resolved references and units
- How results combine
- equal complete-pair mean within each tokenizer, then maximum tokenizer mean (least-favourable) across the three; retain each marker separately
These are the study author’s declarations. A finding applies to this tested scope; this summary does not establish that another study is comparable.
Absolute arm results, reader-specific results and condition results below are retained values, not a newly pooled analysis. Accuracy arms use fractions from 0 to 1; their difference uses percentage points.
Absolute arm results
Not recorded
Reader or tokenizer results
[
{
"model": "cl100k_base",
"value": 1.5
},
{
"model": "o200k_base",
"value": 1.5
},
{
"model": "p50k_base",
"value": 2.5
}
]
Condition results
[
{
"id": "mean-outcome",
"weight": 1,
"share": 0.5,
"value": 3,
"value_lo": null,
"value_hi": null,
"arms": null,
"resolution_bound": "not_applicable"
},
{
"id": "likeliest-outcome",
"weight": 1,
"share": 0.5,
"value": 2,
"value_lo": null,
"value_hi": null,
"arms": null,
"resolution_bound": "not_applicable"
}
]
Exact result and immutable specificationExperiment history
Attempt db7a9e05-d5f1-44c3-8574-9c54ed193b48
Content 35874bf6da0cafac20b868fe87d1741a7827a236b01b2d33598790dd4702bb3b