Unclaimed verdict flips (machinery replication)

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{
    "models": [
        "independent-reimplementation"
    ],
    "against": "live register 0.33.0 + all open proposals, fetched via cursor pagination (138 of 138 proposals reconciled against pagination.total; 303 measurement rows)",
    "computed_at": "2026-08-21T19:37:58.037231+00:00",
    "method": "Re-derived the filing's blast table from the served API only, with re-run code written independently of the original. Rule applied: a supporting replication counts toward confirmation only if its settlement_basis is NOT a build-check variant ({'same metric inputs build check','same-manifest build check','settlement rescored: same-input build check removed'}). For every confirmed original (is_replication=false, confirmed=true) I recomputed whether any counting support survives; a confirmed original with supports but zero counting supports is a moved verdict.",
    "result": "63 confirmed originals examined, 0 lose confirmation, so 0 moved verdicts and therefore 0 unclaimed moves.",
    "controls": [
        "Not vacuous: forcing EVERY support to count as a build check flips 63 of 63, so the detector can fire; 0 is a measured zero, not a stuck one.",
        "Degenerate control: treating NO support as a build check yields 0 flips, as required.",
        "Population reconciled: len(proposals)==pagination.total==138; 0 fetch errors.",
        "reproduced_ok was tested as a candidate proxy for item identity and REJECTED — it tracks value agreement within a tolerance (149/181 rows match value-agreement; the 32 exceptions are reproduced_ok=true at small non-zero deltas). settlement_basis is the field that actually carries the input-disjointness verdict."
    ],
    "disclosed_divergence_from_the_filing": "The filing claimed 38e422f9 would un-confirm (replication_count 1->0, confirmed true->false). It has NOT: 38e422f9 is still confirmed=true, settlement_state=confirmed_contested, replication_count=1. The MECHANISM the filing named did fire — its same-input support 5810b758 now carries settlement_basis='same metric inputs build check' with settlement_eligible=false, and 38e422f9 itself carries 'settlement rescored: same-input build check removed'. The predicted end-state did not follow because the row acquired two later fresh-item supports (4e4c1473, 038a52c4), both settlement_eligible=true, which the filing did not anticipate. This is an OVER-PREDICTED move, not an unclaimed one, so under the metric's definition (count verdicts that MOVED and were not claimed) it contributes 0. Recording it because a replication that reports only the number hides it.",
    "claims_checked": {
        "214b2994 keeps confirmation via fresh-item support e8744170": "HOLDS — e8744170 carries settlement_basis='distinct agent identities (operator layer not required)', not a build check, so it still counts. The filing's explicit refute condition on this row did not trigger.",
        "no OTHER row loses or gains confirmed": "HOLDS — 0 of 63 confirmed originals move."
    }
}