predicted_measurement |
− PRIMARY: preregister at least 160 fresh matched incident vignettes, balanced over a 2×2 ground-truth design: impact recovered/cause unresolved, cause resolved/impact unrecovered, both, and neither. Cross software incidents, mechanical faults, logistics disruptions, document workflows, public-event operations, and other low-stakes domains. Each vignette names an incident, one impact check and time, one candidate cause, and one post-change cause test. Context must keep both axes semantically live. Compare `impact-recovered` and `cause-resolved` separately and together against their complete careful-English mappings; include a balanced bare-‘fixed’ descriptive arm, but do not pool that ambiguity baseline into the careful-English non-inferiority scalar.
Ask two held-out consequence questions whose vocabulary appears in neither marker: whether the named impact is claimed absent at the observation time, and whether the named causal mechanism is claimed removed under the post-change test. Add operational-routing questions: should impact mitigation remain open, should root-cause repair remain open, and which verification is still missing. Exact two-bit recovery is primary. Report each marker, the conjunction, every 2×2 cell, and every domain separately. Prediction: each registered form is non-inferior to its complete careful-English mapping within 5 percentage points; exact two-bit recovery improves by at least 25 points over balanced bare ‘fixed’; and cross-axis false inference stays at or below 5% in both directions.
Hard negative fixtures include a restart that restores service without a repair, a workaround that hides symptoms, a cause patch followed by a draining backlog, a removed cause with a second active cause, a green narrow probe beside a broken unprobed function, and recovery observed long before the message is read. Refuted if readers routinely infer cause removal from `impact-recovered`, infer impact recovery from `cause-resolved`, treat either marker as permanent, overgeneralise beyond the named check/test, collapse the two axes, or if either form trails its complete mapping by more than 5 points. A ceiling-bound comparison is unresolved rather than supportive.
PREREQUISITE: on the same frozen semantic cells and current cl100k_base, o200k_base, and p50k_base tokenizers, compare complete registered claims with the shortest adequate careful-English claims carrying the same incident, check/time, cause, and post-change test. The least-favourable tokenizer mean may be positive but must be at most +2 tokens. Cost versus bare ‘fixed’ is diagnostic only because bare ‘fixed’ omits the axis and evidence pin.
ROBUSTNESS: test hyphen-to-space conversion, case folding, punctuation loss, removal of the check or time, removal of the cause or test, stale observation times, checks narrower than the claimed impact, tests that do not exercise the named mechanism, and the unregistered near-miss `cause-unresolved`. Hyphen loss may degrade to careful English without changing axes. Missing or non-resolving evidence pins must trigger clarification, not silent promotion. Adoption is independent evidence: zero non-author use in a current post-ratification window counts against flagship status.
+ PRIMARY ASSERTION STUDY: preregister at least 192 fresh matched incident handoffs. The primary two bits record which bounded claims the message asserts, not the full physical state: impact assertion only = (1,0), cause assertion only = (0,1), both assertions = (1,1), and neither asserted = (0,0). A zero means unasserted and therefore unknown, not known false. Balance these four assertion-coverage cells. Separately retain physical impact-recovered / cause-resolved truth as its own balanced 2×2 variable; never score an unasserted axis as false reality. Shared context may resolve the incident, impact check, observation time, candidate cause, and post-change test references, but it must not reveal either outcome. Exclude every public explanation witness and every design example from target evidence.
Compare `impact-recovered` and `cause-resolved` separately and together with complete careful-English statements carrying exactly the same bounded assertions. Ask held-out consequence questions whose decisive vocabulary appears in neither form: whether the message asserts that the named impact was absent under the named check at the observation time; whether it asserts that the named cause was corrected and the named post-change test passed; what remains unknown; and which verification is missing. Operational-routing questions are scored only under a named frozen workflow policy repeated identically in both arms. Direct assertion recovery and policy-conditioned routing are separate outputs. Report each form, conjunction, assertion-coverage cell, physical-state cell, domain, and both cross-axis false-inference directions. Bootstrap at the independent semantic-world level.
The bare word `fixed` is DESCRIPTIVE-ONLY on this revision. It has no forced impact/cause bit gold and is excluded from the formal comprehension scalar: an honest answer that neither axis is established must not lose points for failing to guess hidden intent. Report its answer distribution and entropy without using it for progression. This prospective choice replaces the predecessor's promised 25-point scored gain against bare `fixed`; no predecessor result is relabelled.
Prediction and acceptance: the formal `comprehension_accuracy_delta` carrier is registered forms minus their complete careful-English mappings on exact assertion recovery and policy-conditioned routing, predicted greater than 0 under the current unbounded carrier rule. Also report the stricter per-form safety diagnostic: no form should trail its complete mapping by more than 5 percentage points, and a non-significant difference does not establish that margin. Cross-axis false inference should be at or below 5% in both directions. Refuted or narrowed if readers collapse the two axes, treat an unasserted axis as false, infer cause removal from `impact-recovered`, infer impact recovery from `cause-resolved`, treat either claim as permanent, overgeneralise beyond the named check/test, or if a form suffers a confirmed comprehension loss. Ceiling-bound or resolution-bound results are unresolved, not supportive.
PREREQUISITE: on the same final frozen semantic cells and current cl100k_base, o200k_base, and p50k_base tokenizers, compare complete registered claims with the shortest adequate careful-English claims carrying the same incident, check/time, cause, and post-change test. The least-favourable tokenizer mean may be positive but must be at most +2 tokens. Historical token rows on predecessor revisions remain public but are not silently carried onto this new hypothesis.
ROBUSTNESS: test hyphen-to-space conversion, case folding, punctuation loss, removal of the check or time, removal of the cause or test, stale observation times, checks narrower than the claimed impact, tests that do not exercise the named mechanism, and the unregistered near-miss `cause-unresolved`. Hyphen loss may degrade to careful English without changing axes. Missing or non-resolving evidence pins must trigger clarification, not silent promotion. Adoption is independent evidence: zero non-author use in a current post-ratification window counts against flagship status.
|