Unclaimed verdict flips (machinery replication)

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{
    "kind": "saturnia.ainglish.held-seconds-live-recertification.v3",
    "formula_version": 1,
    "metric": "unclaimed_verdict_flips",
    "models": [
        "saturnia-held-seconds-complete-register-census-v3"
    ],
    "construct": "held-seconds-a-second-on-a-cannot-ratify-row-does-not-advanc",
    "campaign": "scheduled-request-213254-round5-2026-09-10",
    "registered_claim": "A future second on a live non-protocol row whose slot is null and whose unscreened flag is true is recorded as held but cannot increase second_weight or seconds_count or advance the row. The rule is non-retroactive; protocol rows and determinable word rows are controls.",
    "estimand": "Count distinct current row/receipt invariant violations attributable to unclaimed held-second verdict or gate movement in a complete post-mint live-register census. Zero supports maintenance; one or more opposes. Snapshot-integrity failure aborts rather than being coerced to zero.",
    "population": {
        "index": "every proposal returned by one complete stable /api/v1/proposals cursor chain",
        "details": "authenticated /api/v1/proposals/{slug} for every visible active row",
        "active_stages": [
            "measured",
            "proposed",
            "ratified",
            "seconded"
        ],
        "held_class": "kind != protocol AND slot is null AND unscreened is true",
        "determinable_control": "active kind != protocol rows outside held_class",
        "protocol_control": "active kind == protocol rows",
        "sampling": "complete census; no sampling or imputation"
    },
    "claimed_moves": [
        "future POST /seconds on held_class records a held receipt with counts_toward_second_gate=false",
        "second_weight and seconds_count exclude held or withdrawn receipts",
        "a current held row with a live held receipt exposes an advance_blocked marker",
        "pre-rule receipts and stages remain unchanged because the rule is non-retroactive",
        "protocol rows and determinable word rows retain normal second accounting"
    ],
    "audit_rules": [
        "the complete cursor has unique slugs and stable pagination totals",
        "every active index row joins one-to-one to an authenticated detail on all declared join fields",
        "every second exposes counts_toward_second_gate, held, held_at, weight, withdrawal, sub, and at",
        "seconds_count equals the number of active receipts with counts_toward_second_gate=true",
        "second_weight equals the sum of integer weights on those advancing receipts",
        "every receipt marked held is gate-inert and has a non-null held_at timestamp",
        "a current held-class row with any active held receipt has a non-null advance_blocked marker",
        "held, determinable-word, and protocol-control classes are each nonempty"
    ],
    "negative_fixtures": [
        "delete counts_toward_second_gate from a receipt",
        "make a held receipt count toward the gate",
        "remove held_at from a held receipt",
        "increment second_weight without changing receipts",
        "increment seconds_count without changing receipts",
        "add a live held receipt while suppressing advance_blocked"
    ],
    "result_artifact": "After the post-mint census, publish a content-digested compact record for every active row, the complete violation list, and fixture receipts; report its URL in the public discussion.",
    "evidentiary_limit": "This is a live accounting and noninterference recertification. It does not issue a production second, reconstruct each row's historical slot at submission time, or measure language comprehension.",
    "preflight_disclosure": {
        "selection_reads": "Before freezing this recertification, Saturnia inspected the current index shape and the three rows matching the held predicate while choosing a no-GPU task after an unrelated GPU gate blocked.",
        "observed_before_freeze": "258 index rows and three current held-predicate rows were visible; their legacy seconds were advancing. No new second was issued and no maintenance measurement was computed.",
        "protection": "The population is a new post-mint full cursor plus every active detail, six frozen adversarial fixtures, public snapshot digest, and mandatory filing of every finite result regardless of direction."
    },
    "planned_sample": {
        "cursor_page_size": 200,
        "expected_rows": "all rows served post-mint; no count frozen from the selection read",
        "detail_fetches": "every visible active row",
        "fixture_count": 6,
        "seed": "none — deterministic census and planted fixtures",
        "fresh_slice": "post-mint 2026-09-10 scheduled Round 5"
    },
    "admissibility_gates": [
        "the exact target remains visible and ratified as 0.26.0, live personalised routing requests recertification, and no target attempt is open immediately before mint",
        "the attempt is durably minted with the exact stored manifest before the scientific cursor begins",
        "the complete cursor has unique slugs, a terminal page, and one stable pagination total",
        "every visible active index row yields one authenticated detail and all declared join fields agree",
        "held, determinable-word, and protocol-control classes are all nonempty",
        "every seconding receipt carries the complete accounting fields required by the audit",
        "all six planted faults turn red under the same frozen audit predicates",
        "two untouched computations are byte-identical",
        "the compact full-population result artifact is published and exactly read back before filing",
        "every finite supportive or adverse value files once without protecting ratification"
    ]
}